Komorowski Win No Guarantee of Reforms

Bronislaw Komorowski
The victory of moderate conservative Bronislaw Komorowski in Poland’s presidential elections will lead to smoother cooperation between the head of state and the government, but does not provide a cast-iron guarantee the country will forge ahead with vital fiscal reforms.
Experts said Komorowski’s ruling, business-friendly Civic Platform (PO) party will be averse to risking wide ranging reforms ahead of next year’s scheduled parliamentary elections.
"The reform-minded PO party, thanks to Bronislaw Komorowski's win, will consolidate a larger degree of power... which may make easier the tightening of fiscal policy that is necessary in the coming years," Barclays Capital analysts said.
But experts at Morgan Stanley warned that no significant reforms were likely.
"Taking into consideration how badly PO will need an election win in 2011 and that PiS [Law and Justice, the main opposition party] concluded a spectacular comeback onto the political scene with these presidential elections, the ruling party's motivation to introduce painful and/or unpopular reforms is low," Morgan Stanley analysts said.
Komorowski won 53% of the vote in Sunday’s elections, while Jaroslaw Kaczynski, head of the opposition Law and Justice, won 47%.
Komorowski’s predecessor as president, Kaczynski’s twin brother Lech, was often blamed by PO politicians for vetoing reforms.