An international program known as Foresight uses scientific methods to predict future trends.

Well known internationally, the Foresight program was first introduced in Japan in 1970 before moving to Britain, the Netherlands, the United States, Sweden, Hungary and the Czech Republic. The program has now come to Poland as the Polska 2020 National Foresight Program.

The program uses scientific methods to predict future trends. Although we cannot predict the future, existing research methods are useful in helping us identify potential risks and opportunities in relation to science and technology, which can enable policy makers to develop strategies to manage our future better.

This way of thinking and acting is a radical departure from business as usual in Poland. The rapid growth of the global economy requires a proactive approach as societies need to be prepared for whatever this juggernaut might have in store. Many countries have already developed ways of dealing with forecast rapid and profound changes. Thousands of programs have already been implemented by several countries, regions and industry sectors. Now it is Poland's turn.

Bridging the gap
Poland has to develop a rational and realistic plan for its scientific, technological and economic development if it is going to catch up with the rest of the world. The country needs a developmental vision that will see it through to 2020. This will require new mechanisms for dialogue and cooperation as well as a broad consensus between decision-makers, the academic community, industry and the general public in those areas in which Poland wants to develop. Poland needs to reshape its policies on science and innovation if it is going to build a knowledge-based economy, and the principles on which those policies are premised need to be brought more in line with European Union standards.

The Foresight program in Poland was launched in December 2006 by the minister of science and higher education and is expected to continue until June 30, 2008. Sustainable Development for Poland, Information and Telecommunication Technologies and Security are the three research fields that make up the program. The first of these is broken down into 10 subjects and the other two into five each.

Program consortium
A coordinating consortium has been charged with organizing the program. The Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN) Institute of Fundamental Technological Research has been appointed coordinator. The other members are the PAN Institute of Economics, which is responsible for analyzing statistical and other data related to the program, and Pentor Research International. All program tasks are to be divided among the three consortium members, according to Pentor vice-chairman Jerzy Głuszyński, Ph.D. Głuszyński is deputy director of the programs for conducting opinion polls, organizing public debates and managing public relations.

Pentor is responsible for promoting Foresight. This entails arranging conferences and public debates, liaising with the media, and maintaining a web portal. The company will also be handling expert group surveys and running a large-scale interactive forecast using the Delphi method, the centerpiece of the entire program. The Delphi method is a process that involves carefully selected experts independently answering questionnaires and then revising their answers when given the opinions of their peers. Delphi has never been implemented on such a massive scale in Poland before. While Delphi will be the primary methodology, the project will also be deploying a number of other methodological tools like panel discussions, SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) and PEST (Political, Economic, Social, Technological factors) analyses, brainstorming, the cross impact method of forecasting, modeling and social consulting.

The core structure of the Foresight program consists of a main panel, 20 panels for specialist subjects and three panels for research fields. All up, these will have more than 400 people of varying ages and specializations. Scientists, businesspeople and economists will all be represented. The country's most experienced and best qualified will be sitting alongside some of the most promising of the up-and-coming. Other panel members include members of nongovernmental organizations, social activists and, last but not least, some of those who write the laws and control the purse strings.

Expert evaluation
"A Foresight expert will not necessarily have a postdoctoral degree or indeed any formal qualifications in a particular field," says Głuszyński. "Anyone with knowledge of, and interest in, a given subject-even as a hobby-qualifies. A Foresight expert might be a software developer, an owner of an innovative company, a manager who's right up to speed with global economic processes, an environmentalist, an outstanding promoter of science or a student. This cast of thousands of 'social experts,' who volunteer for the good of Poland, are called upon to evaluate the hypotheses prepared for the Delphi forecasts. The social experts' ratings and opinions will indicate promising developmental scenarios for Poland. This will ensure that our development scenarios-the final stage of the project-are both optimal and achievable."

The main panel is at the top of the program hierarchy and its decisions are strategically important to Polska 2020. The panel is chaired by Prof. Michał Kleiber, chairman of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Three panels corresponding to the three research fields mentioned above will be carrying out the program. Research panels, support groups and partner institutions will be assigned to each of these three fields.

"We don't want to group experts in panels just so they can come up with a final analysis, present Poland's optimal developmental scenarios between now and 2020 and then sit back and wait," says Głuszyński. "This has to be an ongoing process that will be constantly expanded and updated as new situations arise. Obviously, we do expect to be told which scenario will best serve Poland between now and 2020, but we also want to know what other scenarios are feasible. We want to know how Poland and Polish businesses can become more competitive, where we can outclass other global players, and what Polish people most want in terms of quality of life."

Delphi surveys
The Delphi method is central to the project. This essentially involves a two-stage survey of a selected group of experts who cannot communicate with each other. Each should have a broad view on how the field being surveyed interacts with the rest of the world, in addition to having vast knowledge and experience.

"The experts are anonymous and each makes an individual assessment," says Głuszyński. "The project coordinators collect and analyze the results of the first stage before preparing the second in which they narrow the scope of interest and resend the questionnaire to the same experts. The experts have to tackle the hypotheses again only this time they know what they and the others said previously."

The procedures for devising hypotheses for the Delphi survey are long and involved. It all begins with priorities which are then grouped into macro priorities. These are then subjected to various analyses, some of which are based on extra surveys, before any hypotheses can be formulated.

Foresight Polska 2020 encompasses five Delphi surveys in different research fields. Each survey has about 15 hypotheses which need to be evaluated according to a number of criteria such as whether the forecast situation will materialize and, if so, on what scale.

"In addition to the 400 so-called 'internal' experts, there is a group of scientific and economic 'external' experts drawn from social and professional organizations and the media. We also have politicians, local government members and other decision makers," says Głuszyński. "After the first round of the survey, the results are sent back to the panel members and to those who devised the hypotheses. It may turn out, for example, that the academic community perceives one hypothesis as a sure thing but the external experts don't. Then again, there may be a broad consensus on the hypotheses proposed by the experts."

Large-scale expert surveys have only be made possible in Poland by the spread the internet. A dedicated IT infrastructure has been set up for the program to facilitate communication and encourage creative thinking. This latter is further aided by special questionnaires that optimize the experts' work without the need for frequent, face-to-face meetings.

"We want to allow all the experts to present their hypotheses and then refer back to them once they become acquainted with those of their partners. They still won't know who gave what rating to which hypothesis," Głuszyński says. "This sort of technique fosters creative thinking."

Danuta Górecka