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The Warsaw Voice » Business » June 25, 2008
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Developing Country Growth Resilient
June 25, 2008 By L.¯.    
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Economic growth in developing countries is decelerating but is still robust in the wake of financial turmoil in high-income countries and amid high food and energy prices, according to Global Development Finance 2008, a new report by the World Bank released June 13. Private capital flows to emerging markets, which hit a record $1 trillion in 2007, are expected to drop to around $800 billion by 2009, which would still be the second highest level ever, the report says.

Mansoor Dailami, manager of international finance at the World Bank and the main author of the report, said the ripple effect of shocks from the credit squeeze in the United States could impact local financial markets, including those in countries such as Hungary, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine.

The report predicts a slowdown in world GDP growth from 3.7 percent in 2007 to 2.7 percent in 2008, while growth in developing countries is expected to slow from an extraordinary 7.8 percent in 2007 to 6.5 percent in 2008.

Europe and Central Asia achieved a remarkable 6.8-percent GDP growth in 2007, down from 7.3 percent in 2006, against a backdrop of global financial turmoil, steep rises in commodity prices, and the slowing of demand becoming apparent in the euro area. Growth is expected to slow to 5.8 percent in 2008 and stabilize at about 5.4 percent over 2009 and 2010.

According to the World Bank, the GDP growth rate in Poland will drop from 6.6 percent in 2007 to 5.7 percent in 2008 and 5.1 percent in 2009. This is a more optimistic forecast than that by the Polish government, which predicts 5.5 percent this year and 5 percent next year.
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