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The Warsaw Voice » Business » September 24, 2008
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Higher Growth Forecast
September 24, 2008 By L.¯.    
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Poland's GDP will grow this year by 5.4 percent, the European Commission predicts in a forecast released in mid-September. The Commission revised upwards its previous projection of half a year ago by 0.1 percentage points because first-half results were much better than expected. Additionally, consumer demand is still high and exports relatively strong, despite the global crisis.

"So far the Polish economy has shown a high degree of immunity to external risk. Although a slight slowdown has been seen recently, growth is still strong," said Joaquin Almunia, EU commissioner for economic and monetary affairs.

In the second half of the year, the economy will still be driven mainly by internal demand and investment in fixed assets, according to the European Commission forecast. Employment will continue to grow, however at a slightly slower pace than in the first half of the year. The economic growth rate will be a little lower due to weaker exports as the Polish economy will finally be hit by the strong zloty and a drop in demand in other EU countries.

The European Commission also revised upwards Poland's CPI inflation projection from 4.3 percent to 4.5 percent. In the third quarter, inflation is expected to reach the highest level of 4.8 percent as a result of upward wage pressure and high fuel prices on world markets.

Compared to other countries, the Polish economy is in a very good shape. The EU's largest economies are already in crisis. Germany is the only large economy to have its growth projection unchanged by the European Commission. Projections for Britain, France, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands were revised downwards sharply.
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