Polish economy to grow 1.3% in '13, rebound to 3.1% in '15 - NBP
March 12, 2013
Poland is facing economic growth slowdown to 1.3% in 2013 with a rebound to 2.6% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015, while CPI will stay near 1.6% throughout the projection horizon, central bank NBP said in its latest inflation projection.
The 2013 growth forecast is slightly more pessimistic than 1.5% expected by the NBP in the previous projection released in November but 2014 forecast was upgraded.
Weakness of 2013 GDP will stem from "unfavorable economic situation abroad, in particular, in the euro area and falling household consumption (driven by worsening labor market situation) which cannot be sustained at the expense of reduction in savings," the central bank said.
In 2014 and 2015 the economy will accelerate and GDP growth is expected to outpace potential growth in 2015, resulting in a decline of output gap to 1.4% of potential GDP in Q4 2015. The 2015 growth will be supported by resumed strong inflows of EU funds.
The 2014-2015 recovery will come mostly on domestic factors: domestic demand growth is seen growing 2.2% in 2013 and 3.3% in 2015 after recording stagnation in 2013. Investments are expected to start growing in 2014, first in the corporate sector, then in housing and eventually, in 2015, in public investments, according to NBP researchers.