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The Warsaw Voice » Business » March 29, 2012
Business & Economy
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Better Forecasts for Poland
March 29, 2012   
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The buoyancy of the Polish economy has prompted financial institutions to revise upwards their 2012 GDP growth forecasts for the country.

Foreign banks BNP Paribas, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs are among the financial institutions which have recently revised upwards their projections for Poland’s economic growth. BNP Paribas analysts predict that the Polish economy will grow 2.4 percent this year and 2.7 percent next year. The growth figures were raised from 1.6 percent and 2.4 percent respectively as a result of the upward revision of Germany’s GDP growth from 0.4 percent to 1.1 percent. The bank also revised its projections for four other Central European countries—Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania. The region’s average GDP growth rate is predicted to be 1.4 percent in 2012 and 2.6 percent in 2013, revised up from 0.6 percent and 2.2 percent respectively. In a commentary, the BNP Paribas analysts say that Germany is the main trade partner for Central Europe and that the strong performance of the German economy offsets the weakness of the economies of Mediterranean members of the eurozone.

JP Morgan has revised up its GDP projection for Poland for the first quarter of 2012 to 2.75 percent from 2.0 percent in year on year terms and the annual GDP growth forecast for 2012 to 3.0 percent from 2.7 percent. But JP Morgan analysts expect that the economy will slow in the second quarter. “Growth will slow in the second quarter in reaction to the weakening of foreign demand and fiscal tightening by the government,” JP Morgan analysts said in a commentary, adding that they expect the German economy to stagnate in the second quarter. “The drop in public investment expected after the Euro 2012 [soccer championship in Poland] will also have an adverse impact on the pace of growth. It is yet to be seen to what extent private investment will offset the drop.”

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs believes that the condition of the Polish economy will improve. The bank raised the GDP growth projection for Poland for 2012 to 2.5 percent from 2.0 percent.

HSBC and Erste bank are more cautious in their forecasts. HSBC is sticking to its conservative projection and expects that Poland’s GDP will grow 2.4 percent this year and 3.5 percent next year. At the end of January, Erste Group revised downwards its GDP growth projection for Poland to 2.4 percent this year and 3.2 percent next year.

Poland’s Central Statistical Office (GUS) has estimated that the economy grew 4.3 percent last year. In its 2012 budget, the government expects GDP to grow 2.5 percent.
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