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The Warsaw Voice » Business » November 29, 2012
Business & Economy
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Polish 2012 GDP Growth to Slow to 2.5%: HSBC
November 29, 2012   
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Due to a sharp slowdown in activity, Poland’s GDP growth in 2012 will not exceed 2.5 percent, well below the 4.3 percent expansion seen in 2011, investment bank HSBC says in its latest HSBC Global Connections Report, an overview of world trade and the opportunities for international businesses.

The report, which looks at Poland’s economic and trade performance in November, says that external demand should gradually strengthen, with Q3 expected to mark the weakest phase of the current Eurozone economic cycle. Still, with prospects for growth among the developed economies of Europe likely to remain lackluster, Poland will also seek to take advantage of growing demand for its industrial products from faster growing emerging markets.

Poland’s largest neighbor is Germany and the two countries have strong trading links, HSBC says. Germany is Poland’s top trading partner and this will be unchanged by 2030. Indeed Poland’s top four export markets are set to be unchanged by 2030. The UK, France and Turkey follow closely behind Germany as key export destinations for Poland. China and India will gradually rise in the rankings to replace the slower-growing U.S. economy in the coming years. Exports to both countries are expected to increase at an average annual pace of around 11 percent in the decade to 2030, allowing China to break into Poland’s top five export partners by 2030. More broadly, exports to Asia (excluding Japan) are forecast to rise at an average annual pace of close to 11 percent over the period 2021-2030.

Over the medium term, export markets in the Middle East and North Africa will also increase in importance, with growth averaging 10 percent a year during 2021-2030. Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will become increasingly important new markets for Poland. The medium-term weakness of demand in the Eurozone is such that Polish exports to Europe (excluding Russia) are expected to grow at an average annual rate of less than 6 percent during 2021–30. Within Europe, Turkey will be the strongest market in terms of growth, expanding at an average annual rate of 10 percent a year over this period.

HSBC’s forecasts show that China, India and Vietnam will become increasingly important sources of imports into Poland. The rapid industrialization of these Asian economies and their gradual move up the value chain mean that they will continue to increase their import penetration throughout much of Europe with higher value-added products.
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