Poland’s economic growth picks up in Q2
September 2, 2013
Poland’s economy showed a rebound in growth in the second quarter, but data show that the growth had come almost exclusively from the strength in exports, with little trace of help from private consumption or investments.
Poland's GDP grew 0.8% year-on-year in Q2 2013, up from a 0.5% reading in Q1, with investments down by 3.8% to bring domestic demand to a 1.9% annual decline, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) said on Friday.
GDP increased by 0.4% q/q, GUS also said.
Q2 GDP growth was built on exports and public consumption almost exclusively, with total domestic demand offering a negative 1.7 pps contribution to the Q2 growth figure, GUS said.
Net exports contributed a hefty 2.5 pps of the Q2 growth figure, the data show. That offset the negative contribution from domestic demand, which fell 1.9% year on year in Q2. What contribution came from consumption was visible almost exclusively in public consumption.
"The data confirm a recovery," BRE Bank chief economist Ernst Pytlarczyk told PAP Polish news agency. "We are growing mostly thanks to exports," Pytlarczyk said, calling H1 consumption "weak" but enough to "confirm that we are past the bottom."
ING Bank Slaski economist Rafal Benecki sees lots of potential in the domestic side of the question. He sees improvement in the consumption side and says that continued investment weakness comes on reduced public investments and signals that the private sector might be picking up the ball. Domestic demand figure may have been weakened by inventory effects, he adds.
"Such a structure of growth implies further acceleration in H2 - in our opinion the growth in the entire year will amount to some 1.4%," Benecki told PAP. "Poland will benefit from a recovery in the euro zone as well as from inventory rebuilding and further improvement of consumption."