Fitch upgrades Poland's 2014 GDP growth forecast to 3pct
February 5, 2014
Fitch Ratings agency has raised its forecast for Poland’s 2014 GDP growth to 3% having previously predicted the country’s economy to expand by 2.4 % this year.
"Our current forecast for GDP growth in Poland this year is at 3%," senior director at Fitch Ratings Paul Rawkins told a conference on Tuesday.
In December 2013, the agency expected the Polish economy to grow at a pace of 2.4% this year.
The forecast was revised up on higher-than-expected public revenues, resulting from the government’s pension reform, Rawkins said.
“We perceive the Polish pension reform as a natural step for the country,” Rawkins said.
Poland's public finance sector will enjoy a surplus of 4.5% of GDP in 2014, thanks to the pension fund asset transfer, but will swing back to a deficit of 2.9% of GDP in 2015, the agency said.
According to Fitch, Poland's rating could benefit from lowering the debt to GDP ratio and from lowering external debt. Easing fiscal discipline or prolonged economic slowdown, however, would have a negative impact on its forecast, he said.
A slowdown in Poland is not Fitch's base scenario, Rawkins added.
Poland's rating by Fitch is currently at A-, with stable outlook.