Industrial output data seen supporting recovery of Polish industry
March 20, 2014
Poland's industrial output increased by 5.3% year on year in February compared with 4.1% in January, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) said on Wednesday.
That was below 6.5% y/y growth expected in the consensus survey by PAP Polish news agency.
Polish seasonally adjusted industrial output in February was up by 5.6% y/y on a 0.9% monthly decrease.
Furniture output rose 18% compared with February 2013, while utilities output fell 5.9%.
Construction output accelerated by 14,4% y/y on a 18.7%monthly increase.
Polish producer prices declined at an annual rate of 1.4% in February, GUS said.
Although the data on industrial output were slightly weaker than expectations, it is still a good reading according to BZ WBK economist Marcin Luzinski
“In general, the high-frequency data readings support the trend which indicates a gradual recovery of Polish industry, fuelled by orders from abroad, but also improving domestic orders. We believe that industrial output will be growing at more or less such a pace, of 5-6%,” he said.
The data on construction output are very positive, Luzinski said adding that it was the strongest reading in two years.
“This shows that the recovery is visible practically in all sectors of the economy,” he said.
Poland's industrial output, both in q/q terms and the seasonally-adjusted measure, should accelerate in Q1 2014 vs Q4 2013, Finance Ministry analysts said.
"Despite a slight decline in February, the [seasonally adjusted] output growth remained an a growth trend, which should be continued in the following months," the analysts wrote. "We expect that in Q1 2014, the output growth rate, both q/q and seasonally adjusted, will accelerate slightly vs Q4 2013, which will be reflected in the higher y/y growth figure."