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The Warsaw Voice » Business » March 8, 2018
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Poland's Monetary Policy Council shows optimism
March 8, 2018   
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Poland's Monetary Policy Council (MPC) took courage in its rate-stabilizing ways from a fresh set of macroeconomic projections by central bank researchers, saying a new set of forecasts look "favorable" for growth while leaving inflation "close to target," the council said following the March sitting.
The MPC council is highly unlikely to hike rates this year and, if the trends hold in line with current expectations, a hike might be needed only at the end of 2019, NBP head Adam Glapinski told a news conference after MPC's March sitting.
"If the data we are basing our work on do not change, then a hike this year is entirely unlikely, next year ... if so than towards the end of the year," Glapinski said.
Core inflation is growing very slowly and inflation is, according to the new projection, stay within the target range to 2020 and will exceed the target itself only in 2020, he explained.
On the bottom line, collegiate bias phrasing remains as it ever was: the current rates are "conducive to keeping the Polish economy on the sustainable growth path and maintaining macroeconomic stability," the council wrote.
The latest set of macroeconomic projections show a "favorable outlook" for growth despite an expected "insignificant" slowdown in GDP growth rates in the following years, the council said.
Inflation is also seen "near the inflation target," the council said of its take on the new projection.
According to the statement, the new projection is notably stronger on growth while lightly milder on inflation than the previous one. All forecast ranges for GDP growth in 2018 and 2019 are up notably. Inflation forecasts for those years have moved little, trimmed only on the upper end.
In the first view to 2020, National Bank of Poland (NBP) researchers say, the economy has a 50% chance of growing in a range from 2.6% to 4.6% with inflation at a 50% chance of falling in a range of 1.9% to 4.1%.
Poland's central bank NBP conducts policy on a direct inflation target of 2.5%, allowing itself a tolerance range of plus/minus 1 pps.
Poland's Monetary Policy Council added another month to its record streak of stable rates, holding the reference rate at the 1.5% set by predecessors in March 2015.
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