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The Warsaw Voice » Business » October 8, 2018
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Fund Manager Survey
October 8, 2018   
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Polish bond managers held their positioning and views relatively stable over September, but increased warnings that spreads to bonds could widen over coming periods, the October 2018 PAP Market Insider Poland Fund Manager Survey has shown.
Nearly 2/3 of the panel fears spreads to bonds will be higher 12M out, a record high level of doubt in convergence. Forecasts lapped tipped towards 12M divergence at all back in H1 2016 and, prior to that, at points leading to January 2008. The net 3M forecast for spreads has also tipped to divergence for the second month running.
The strongest element of the picture remains the view to client flows: for the third month running over half the panel forecasts net inflows moving forward and for two months, naysayers have dwindled to a mere handful.
Elsewhere, signals from the sentiment and positioning study point to stability amid a stable market: declared durations didn't move much, nor did yield or macro forecasts.
The panel remains shorter than benchmark on duration, but for September and October has come out of the deeper short-end herding seen for the July and August surveys. Month to month, declarations moved lightly towards shorter duration, but not significantly given the size of the panel.
Likewise no major changes in macro forecasts: inflation won't hit the 2.5% target within the next 18 months but the MPC will enact its first hike somewhere between the 12M and 18M point down the road, even amid a slowdown, still seen putting GDP growth to 3.0% in 2020.
Risks are purely foreign. Asked what is most likely to keep them up at night, panelists pointed to core market monetary policy and core market long yields. The dollar is no longer a threat. Nor is anything domestic in nature.
The survey was conducted from September 27 through October 3 on a panel of 14 local fund management houses on a one-vote-per-management-house basis.
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