By Witold Żygulski
28 September 2005

According to unofficial election returns, the Sept. 25 parliamentary elections ended in a spectacular success for the Polish rightists. Law and Justice (PiS), the winner of the elections, and the runner-up Civic Platform (PO) now face the difficult task of forming a government coalition.

After tallying the votes from more than 90 percent of polling stations nationwide, the State Election Commission (PKW) said Sept. 26 that PiS won 26.84 percent of the vote and PO garnered 24.23 percent, followed by Samoobrona with 11.66 percent, the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) with 11.38 percent, the League of Polish Families (LPR) with 7.89 percent and the Polish Peasants' Party (PSL) with 6.95 percent. The remaining parties, including Polish Social Democracy (SDPL) with 3.8 percent, found themselves outside parliament. In keeping with these results, PiS will fill 152 seats in the Sejm, the PO 133, Samoobrona 57, the SLD 56, LPR 33, and the PSL 27. Two seats are reserved for representatives of the German minority.

In the Senate, PiS will have 48 seats, the PO 35, LPR five, Samoobrona four and the PSL three. The remaining five seats were won by independent election committees.

Turnout was 40.17 percent.
Immediately after the announcement of exit poll findings on the evening of Sept. 25, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński declared that he was a candidate for prime minister. However, he added that if his twin brother Lech won the upcoming presidential elections, another PiS politician would probably be designated as prime minister. Kaczyński said that the new government might be formed at the end of October because "it will be difficult to finalize the government formation process before the presidential elections."

The PiS declared that the PO could fill half of the positions in the new Cabinet, including that of deputy prime minister. Kaczyński said he would gladly see Jan Rokita, the PO prime ministerial candidate in the pre-election campaign, take this post. The PO could also fill the position of Sejm speaker. PiS politicians say their party wants to control the Ministries of Internal Affairs and Administration, Justice, Agriculture and Environmental Protection and Culture as well as "two major economic ministries" without specifying which.

Donald Tusk, leader of the PO and the front-running presidential candidate, said the establishment of a coalition depended on the specific program proposals of PiS. "We will try to persuade Law and Justice that if we are supposed to share the responsibility for what happens in Poland, we would like to be certain that the government program is safe for Poland. Today there is no such 100-percent certainty," Tusk said.

Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, former president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and PO leader in Warsaw, said the economic platforms of the two victorious parties would make agreement difficult. In her opinion, the PO has a pro-market platform (with a flat tax rate-the main source of disputes with the PiS during the election campaign), while PiS promotes a pro-social program that is unrealistic and impossible to implement under the current economic conditions in Poland.

President Aleksander Kwaśniewski declared that he would begin political consultations with the new parliamentary groups by Sept. 28 at the latest. Their representatives will be invited to the Presidential Palace according to the support they received in the elections-from the strongest to the weakest.

In keeping with constitutional deadlines, the president should appoint the new government by Nov. 6 at the latest. Under the constitution, the president, within 30 days of the elections, convenes the first meeting of the newly elected Sejm at which the resigning prime minister submits the resignation of his government. The last possible date is Oct. 24, a day after the potential second round of presidential elections. After he is appointed, the new prime minister has two weeks to present the Sejm with a program of activities for the new Council of Ministers and ask the house to grant the government a vote of confidence. The Sejm must pass the motion with an absolute majority of votes in the presence of at least half the statutory number of deputies.

If the government is not formed by the constitutional deadline or if the government fails to secure a vote of confidence, the Sejm takes over the government formation initiative. Within 14 days of the deadlines for establishing the government or a failed vote of confidence, the Sejm elects a prime minister and individual ministers proposed by the prime minister in an absolute majority of votes in the presence of at least half the statutory number of deputies. The president then appoints the government chosen in this way.

If the Sejm also fails to choose a government, the president has 14 days to appoint the prime minister and the remaining members of the government at his request. The Sejm, within two weeks of the appointment of the Council of Ministers by the president, grants it a vote of confidence with a majority of votes in the presence of at least half the statutory number of deputies.

If the government fails to win a vote of confidence, the president shortens the Sejm term and orders new elections.

Kwaśniewski said that the two victorious groups were divided by a small difference of votes. He said the potential coalition partners should reconcile their visions of economic policy. Otherwise, a PiS minority government might be formed. The president remarked that over the past 15 years no post-election coalition has been easy in Poland. He added that a potential coalition of PiS and PO did not command a sufficient parliamentary majority (two-thirds) to push through amendments to the constitution-something that PiS representatives had vowed to do during the election campaign. In the president's opinion, the most important constitutional amendments, such as the proposed disbanding of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), should be endorsed by the Polish people in a referendum.

An obvious consequence of PiS election success are changes on the ranking list before the presidential elections. Lech Kaczyński, until now clearly behind Tusk, is beginning to quickly catch up with him, according to some observers. According to a poll conducted in the evening of Sept. 25, the two candidates are only 4 percentage points apart, 37 versus 33 percent (in Tusk's favor). This seems to reduce the probability of a first-round win for Tusk Oct. 9.

The remaining presidential candidates are far behind in the polls. Only Samoobrona's Andrzej Lepper and the SDPL's Marek Borowski can expect to win just over 10 percent of the vote.


OPINION
Of the 30 million eligible voters in Poland, 18 million refused to take part in the elections, despite the overwhelming conviction that Poland needs enormous changes. This was the lowest turnout in the face of a heralded turning point. The winning party received the support of around 3.5 million voters-less than 12 percent of the electorate.

Is it that we don't care about the future? Do we have such great trust in our politicians? Do we no longer believe our participation in the vote can make a difference?

Politicians have alienated themselves from society, democracy is collapsing into crisis. In the short and medium term, this may breed trouble: no acceptance for changes, social tensions. This is particularly true if the winners believe they have obtained an absolute mandate and only remember those who supported them, while forgetting the vast majority who did not exercise their voice. In the long term, this is extremely dangerous and opens wide the door to populism of all kinds. Nature abhors a vacuum.

The ruling class has assumed an enormous responsibility. They have to prove that power is wielded by honest, level-headed and rational people. By people who make things better instead of worse, more peaceful instead of turbulent. By people elected by others, which shows we do have an influence on our lives. This influence has to be taken advantage of.
Andrzej Jonas
Editor-in-Chief

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